What will the next year be like? 2011 looks promising

 (Salt Lake Tribune) In the race to economic recovery, state economist Mark Knold sees Utah heading into 2010 in a tight relay with plenty of uncertainty ahead.

Federal stimulus money gave the state a much-needed boost in the last quarter of the sprint, but now it's time for the baton to be passed to the consumer. Will the handoff be clean, improving chances of the state bouncing back from the worst recession since the Great Depression? Or will the baton be dropped, leaving Utah's jobless and its cash-strapped businesses struggling to pick up the pieces and catch up?

Knold doesn't think the exchange will be perfect, but if it comes off smoothly, there might be reason for hope come year's end.

"The highest probability is a year of recovery and rebound," the chief economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services said. "Of course, it will be less than stellar. It will be a slow recovery in the first half of the year. But by the time we get to the end of 2010, we may actually start having more jobs in November and December than we had this year [2009]."

Then again, prospects that a handoff might be fumbled, that consumers worried about staying employed might not spend the economy out of its doldrums, are significant enough that the notion of a protracted recovery cannot be ignored.

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