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Utah's Economic Indicators 2009-11

In November the Revenue Assumption Committee released projections of Utah’s major economic indicators, Table 1. These projections show that by 2011 the number of jobs in the Utah economy will increase by about 20,000. Welcome news after two years of serious decline. If the national economy is through shedding jobs, as the recently released November employment numbers suggest, a turnaround for the Utah economy should be on track for 2011. All major indicators turn positive by 2011 with the exception of nonresidential construction, which is projected to have an 11 percent decline in construction value in 2011.

Employment - The rate of employment decline likely touched bottom in the third quarter of 2009 at slightly more than negative five percent. Through the next three quarters the number of jobs in Utah will continue to be lower than the same month the previous year, but those declines will get smaller and smaller, finally turning positive by the third quarter of 2010. The rebound will take some time to gather momentum, but by 2011 the Utah economy should expand by about 20,000 jobs, or 1.7 percent growth. If job growth reaches 2.5 percent in 2012 and 3.0 percent in 2013 the number of jobs will rise to 1.25 million, the level of 2008.

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